I just read that Bill Clinton believes that unexpectedly strong job growth will bring Mr. Obama re-election.
Oh my. It is amazing just how wrong a respected figure can be. After July 1st, anyone who files a new claim for unemployment insurance will be limited to 26 weeks with no extensions unless Congress does an improbable about face. Some states are even reducing the basic 26 to save money.
(Actually, some states do continue to offer an additional 13 weeks under the long-standing Federal/State Extended benefits program if their unemployment rate is high enough).
This nicely corresponds with the now being finalized state and local budgets. You remember - the budgets resulting in the layoffs of thousands upon thousands of teachers, municipal and state employees.
Very, very cruel timing. Just when benefits duration will be restricted due to the (end) of the Great Recession, the initial claims figure will be jumping above the 500,000 level. The four week moving average will be substantially above 500k by Labor Day.
Far from propelling Obama to another term, the unemployment mess coupled with the increasing fortunes of the super wealthy will cost him dearly if the republicans can field even a semi competent candidate. His outstanding speaking skills cannot overcome a dismal record and the perception of betrayal among former supporters.
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